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Tazaki, Makiko; Shimizu, Ryo; Kimura, Takashi; Tamai, Hiroshi; Nakatani, Takayoshi; Suda, Kazunori
JAEA-Review 2021-076, 108 Pages, 2022/03
JAEA-Review-2021-076.pdf:3.89MB
In order to find ways to lead the denuclearization successfully, effectively, and efficiently in the future, "Research on factor analysis and technical process for achieving denuclearization" has been conducted since 2018. This report covers the first half of the research, namely "Factor analysis for denuclearization", summarizing the results of the case study and factor analysis of denuclearization. First, South Africa, Iraq, Libya, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Belarus, North Korea, Iran and Syria were selected as the initial research target countries, and the history of nuclear development as well as characteristics of denuclearization in each country were investigated and analyzed. Next, in order to consider the measures for the international community to lead the denuclearization of the target countries, eight main denuclearization factors ((1) Motivation for nuclear development, (2) Internal and external situation at the time of the denuclearization, (3) Progress of nuclear development, (4) Effects of sanctions, (5) International framework for denuclearization, (6) Incentives for denuclearization, (7) Denuclearization method, (8) Verification method/verifier) were found out. Finally, the contents of each denuclearization factor from (1) to (8)) in above target countries except Syria were analyzed, together with whether each factor was effective for denuclearization or not. In addition, in order to lead denuclearization effectively and efficiently, what should be done in relation to the eight factors were considered. These results are expected to serve as a basis for research on the technological process of denuclearization, and to help considering the way to accomplish denuclearization.
Tazaki, Makiko; Shimizu, Ryo; Kimura, Takashi; Nakatani, Takayoshi; Tamai, Hiroshi; Suda, Kazunori
Dai-42-Kai Nihon Kaku Busshitsu Kanri Gakkai Nenji Taikai Kaigi Rombunshu (Internet), 4 Pages, 2021/11
no abstracts in English
Nemoto, Miho*; Ebine, Noriya; Okamoto, Akiko; Hosaka, Yasuhisa*; Tsuzuki, Katsunori; Terada, Hiroaki; Hayakawa, Tsuyoshi; Togawa, Orihiko
JAEA-Technology 2021-013, 41 Pages, 2021/08
JAEA-Technology-2021-013.pdf:2.52MB
When North Korea has carried out nuclear tests, Nuclear Emergency Assistance and Training Center (NEAT) predicts atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides by using the WSPEEDI-II upon requests from Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA) and submits the predicted results to NRA in cooperation with Nuclear Science and Engineering Center (NSEC). This is a part of the activity of NEAT supporting the Japanese Government in emergency responses. The WSPEEDI-II automatic calculation system specialized for responses to nuclear tests by North Korea was developed by NSEC and was used for responses to three nuclear tests from February 2013 to September 2017. This report describes the transfer and installation of the calculation system to NEAT, and the subsequent maintenance and operation. Future issues for responses to nuclear tests are also described in this report.
Shimizu, Ryo; Kimura, Takashi; Tazaki, Makiko; Nakatani, Takayoshi; Tamai, Hiroshi; Suda, Kazunori
Dai-41-Kai Nihon Kaku Busshitsu Kanri Gakkai Nenji Taikai Kaigi Rombunshu (Internet), 3 Pages, 2020/11
Efforts to denuclearize North Korea have been made by neighboring countries and related countries, but they have not abandoned North Korea's nuclear development. In this report, we will analyze the North Korean denuclearization negotiations that have been carried out so far, and report on the elements necessary for the realization of North Korea's denuclearization obtained from the past history.
Ishizaki, Shuhei; Hayakawa, Tsuyoshi; Tsuzuki, Katsunori; Terada, Hiroaki; Togawa, Orihiko
JAEA-Technology 2018-007, 43 Pages, 2018/10
JAEA-Technology-2018-007.pdf:5.67MB
When North Korea has carried out a nuclear test, by a request from Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA), Nuclear Emergency Assistance and Training Center (NEAT) predicts atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides by WSPEEDI-II system in cooperation with Nuclear Science and Engineering Center (NSEC), and submits the predicted results to NRA as the activity to assist responses by the Japanese Government. This report explains frameworks of the Japanese Government and Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) to cope with nuclear tests by North Korea, and describes a series of activities by NEAT regarding predictions of atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides in response to the 5th and 6th nuclear tests carried out by North Korea in September 2016 and September 2017. Future plans and issues to be solved for responses to nuclear tests are also described in this report, together with an outline of a computer program system used in the predictions.
Yamamoto, Yoichi; Kijima, Yuichi; Oda, Tetsuzo
no journal, ,
The Japanese NDC-2 estimated the movement of virtual radioactive plume by the Atmospheric Transport Modelling (ATM) simulations with regard to the DPRK 2016 event. The simulations were done in two hypothetical cases of coincident and delayed emission of radionuclides. The NDC-2 decided which IMS radionuclide stations should be monitored based on the simulation results. As the result, no radionuclides generated from the nuclear explosion were found in any IMS data obtained from the selected radionuclide stations in January. However, xenon-133 with high activity concentration above the normal background levels was detected 5 times at the Takasaki station in the middle of February. The NDC-2 estimated the location of emission source of the Xe-133 by ATM backward tracking simulations. Some ATM simulations and the analysis results by the NDC-2 are shown in the presentation.
Shimizu, Ryo; Suda, Kazunori; Tazaki, Makiko; Tamai, Hiroshi; Kitade, Yuta
no journal, ,
In order to deal with Iran's and DPRK's ambitious nuclear programs, the international community has made various efforts, including negotiation within a multilateral framework and UNSC's economic sanctions. As to Iran's nuclear program, EU3+3 successfully reached a JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) in July 2015 by lifting sanctions as well as limiting Iran's nuclear capacity. On the other hand, the international community has not been successful so far in discouraging DPRK from conducting nuclear and missile tests. Six-Party Talks is still suspended. In this report, various aspects of Iran's and DPRK's nuclear programs are to be precisely delineated, and then discussed in order to develop possible measures against DPRK's nuclear program, together with potential effects on the countries concerned when implementing such measures.